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COVID 19 Public Health Aspect

COVID 19 Public Health Aspect

Summary

  • Case fatality rate of 2.3% globally
  • As of February 23, 2020, there were 76,936 reported cases in mainland China and 1,875 cases in locations outside mainland China in 56 countries
  • There have been 2,462 associated deaths worldwide
  • Declared a public health emergency by Health and Human Services HHS on January 31, 2020. [1]
  • Medically fragile patients with pre-existing conditions including lung disease, poorly controlled diabetes and cardiac disease are at increased risk for complications
  • Elderly patients are at increased risk
    • 50-59 y/o has 1.3% mortality
    • 60-69 y/o has 3.6% mortality
    • 70-79 y/o has 8% mortality
    • 80 and above y/o has 14.8% mortality
  • SARS-CoV-2 has a R0 of 2.5
    • Measles has an R0 value of approximately 12-18 in unvaccinated people
    • Seasonal influenza has an R0 of 1.2
  • There is concern for the ability to have a second re-infection after the initial infection has cleared[2]

 

Cases and Epidemiology by Geography

  • March 7th, 2020[3]
    • Global cases 105,559
      • Deaths 3,555
      • Recovered 58,354
    • China 80,652 cases
      • 2,959 deaths in Hubei, China
    • South Korea 7,041 cases
      • 44 deaths in South Korea
    • Italy 5,883 cases
      • 233 deaths in Italy
    • Iran 5,823 cases
      • 145 deaths in Iran
    • Germany 799 cases
    • France 716 cases
      • 11 deaths in France
    • Spain 500 cases
      • 10 deaths in Spain
    • Japan 461 cases
      • 6 deaths in Japan
    • USA 376 cases
      • 12 deaths in King County, Washington
    • Switzerland 268 cases
    • UK 206 cases
    • Netherlands 188 cases
    • Belgium 169 cases
    • Sweden 161 cases
    • Norway 147 cases
    • Singapore 138 cases
    • Hong Kong 108 cases
    • Malaysia 93 cases
    • Bahrain 85 cases
    • Austria 79 cases
    • Australia 63 cases
    • Kuwait 61 cases
    • Canada 54 cases
    • 54 cases in Iraq
      • 4 deaths in Iraq
    • Thailand 50 cases
    • Iceland 50 cases
    • Greece 46 cases
    • United Arab Emirates 45 cases
    • Taiwan 45 cases
    • India 34 cases
    • San Marino 23 cases
    • Denmark 23 cases
    • Lebanon 22 cases
    • Palestine 22 cases
    • Israel 21 cases
    • Portugal 20 cases
    • Czech Republic 19 cases
    • Vietnam 18 cases
    • Ireland 18 cases
  • North America
    • See appendix
  • South America
    • See appendix
  • Asia
    • See appendix
  • Europe
    • See appendix
  • Africa
    • See appendix
  • Australia/Pacific
    • See appendix
  • Most commonly effected age
    • Eighty-seven percent of patients were aged 30 to 79 years (38,680 cases)[4]
  • Vulnerable populations
  • Medically fragile patients with pre-existing conditions including lung disease, poorly controlled diabetes and cardiac disease are at increased risk for complications[5]
  • Elderly patients are at increased risk

 

 

Communicability and Transmission

  • R0 (R naught) is the basic reproduction number and predicts how many people one infected person spread the disease to another person[6]
    • R0 means the disease will likely die out on its own. One sick person usually does not infected another person, or less than one person.
    • R1 means that one sick person infects at least one other person
    • Measles has an R0 value of approximately 12-18 in unvaccinated people
    • Seasonal influenza has an R0 of 1.2
    • Smallpox R0 is 7
    • SARS-CoV-2 has a R0 of 2.5
  • There is concern for the ability to have a second infection after the initial infection has passed[7]
  • Contact transmission (fomite to face)
    • A patient with COVID19 coughs and large droplets containing virus particles spread outward
    • These droplets settle on surfaces in a room, creating a thin film of the virus
      • Virus particles may be shed in other body fluids including
        • Sputum
        • Nasal secretions
        • Stool
        • Saliva
        • Urine
        • Blood
      • Most human coronavirus particles can survive for approximately 1 week on surfaces[8]
        • Animal coronavirus can persist for weeks or months on inanimate surfaces
      • Virus particles persist on fomites in the environment
      • An un-infected person touches the contaminated surface hours or even days later
      • The uninfected person then touches their nose or mouth, transmitting the infection
      • Regular cleansing of environmental surfaces prohibits spread
        • 70% ethanol
        • 5% sodium hypochlorite solution (bleach)
      • Handwashing and/or high concentration ethanol neutralizes the virus

 

Case Fatality Rates

  • Age[9]
    • 0-9 y/o has no deaths reported as of yet
    • 10-19 y/o has 0.2% mortality
    • 20-29 y/o has 0.2% mortality
    • 30-39 y/o has 0.2% mortality
    • 40-49 y/o has 0.4% mortality
    • 50-59 y/o has 1.3% mortality
    • 60-69 y/o has 3.6% mortality
    • 70-79 y/o has 8% mortality
    • 80 and above y/o has 14.8% mortality
  • Sex
    • In one study of 425 patients with pneumonia and confirmed COVID-19, 57% were male.
  • Comorbidities
    • Medically fragile patients with pre-existing conditions including lung disease, poorly controlled diabetes and cardiac disease are at increased risk for complications[10]

 

Comparison to Other Major Viruses41

  • Ebola
    • Identified 1976
    • 33,5577 cases
    • 13,562 deaths with fatality rate of 40.4%
    • 9 countries
  • Nipah
    • Identified in 1998
    • 513 cases
    • 398 deaths with fatality rate of 77.6%
    • 2 countries
  • SARS
    • Identified in 2002
    • 8,096 cases
    • 774 deaths with fatality rate of 9.6%
    • 29 countries
  • MERS
    • Identified in 2012
    • 2,494 cases
    • 858 deaths with fatality rate of 34.4%
    • 28 countries
  • COVID-19
    • Identified in 2020
    • 83,774 cases
    • 2,867 deaths with fatality rate of 3.4%
    • 56 countries

 

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html

[2] https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-being-reinfected-with-covid-19-11944295

[3] https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[4] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

[5] https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925681

[6] https://www.popsci.com/story/health/how-diseases-spread/

[7] https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-being-reinfected-with-covid-19-11944295

[8] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32035997

[9] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2

[10] https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925681